February 14, 2018

Nearby freight premiums and March trains are starting to drive the cash basis higher for Feb/March.  This combined with cash carry is pushing Apr/May values higher as well. HRW basis values traded unchanged for A/M but there are no offers for Feb/Mar. The Kansas City domestic market saw a record number of cars on the spot market & closed unchanged for everything below 12% protein. The domestic spring wheat market closed unchanged today. The PNW market dropped their bids for Feb/Mar today NS/DNS & SWW, while pushing their bids 5 ct/bu for HRW in the Feb/Mar position.

Traders are starting to speculate on crop conditions at the end of February with suggestions the northern plains should have improved conditions, as well for SRW. The HRW southern plains has not received rain over the past 30 days, with 2 weeks to left in the month. Surprisingly the Vegetation maps are better than last year at this time. You may recall last year we were talking about a drought for HRW as well & then the April/May rains made a decent crop, although yield was down 7 bpa from the previous year. HRW crop estimates today are +650 mbu +/- 50 mbu.



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