August 1, 2018

Cash markets today are just a repeat of recent days; growers are selling on the rally and there is no export or domestic demand for the nearby. Exporters, resellers and domestic mills are supporting the deferred cash markets, but everyone is plugged for August. There is not bid for August HRW trains at the gulf and the domestic HRW market closed down 5-15 ct/bu today on the spot market. The domestic spring wheat closed down 25 -40 ct/bu with 4 trains offered and some of those not trading. The PNW market continues to see some business with Japan and the Philippines tendering tonight for October- December shipment. The SRW market has an easier tone in the export and domestic market, but no real definition. The mills are full in the Aug./Sept. positions but trying to buy the deferred months, while the CIF market just struggles with lack of demand verse lack of #2 grade.

Traders/analyst debate how USDA will adjust the world wheat balance in the August report. The expectation is USDA will cut world wheat production 5-8+ million MT and will be offset by a 2-3 million MT cut on the demand side. The other question is how will USDA shuffle the domestic feed and residual verse imports of corn or further draw down of wheat stocks.

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