Wheat takes a backseat to row crop harvest

The deferred bid/offer values have not change over the past 10-days as buyers hold their bids at historical values and sellers add the freight premiums to delivered premiums. There has been a turnaround in nearby values with higher basis after disappointing applications on September contracts. Increased freight rates encourage shippers to carry wheat until J/F/M or A/M positions where freight is cheaper.  Shippers/warehouse men have made their space for fall crops and have no interest in shipping wheat for the balance of the calendar year.  Northern Plains growers will hold spring wheat on farm at current prices with more incentive to sell row crops. We do not foresee any pressure on cash wheat basis over the next 2 months as shippers focus on row crop harvest. There is additional concern the high cash basis and flat price of US wheat will limit export sales for O/N/D. We are surprised US wheat futures rallied 50 ct/bu while the fob vessel basis is +40 ct/bu above historical DVE values due to higher freight and historically high elevation margins. 

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