The cash markets were dead with HRW traders making their way to the Kansas Grain Convention in Wichita & trying to determine the amount of damage/loss from this weekends’ freeze & lack of moisture. The gulf market was not spoken but the Kansas City domestic market closed up 10 ct/bu on 11.4-11.6% protein. SRW was…
April 3, 2018
Today’s futures rally is not buying us any export business, but Russia wheat was up $3-$4/mt today & Matif was up $3-$4/mt as well, so no real damage. The cash markets were mixed as traders were cutting their HRW production estimates after USDA’s crop condition ratings yesterday PM, the gulf traded up 5+ ct/bu on…
USDA March Prospective Planting and Stocks report
Cash wheat markets were dead today as traders focused on logistics for the long weekend & the shock of the USDA stocks & acreage report. They’re also busy with month end, end of quarter & some end of year reports & M2M. We spent the day working on the report & the impact on balance…
March 22, 2018
PNW exporters and Canadian exporters have seen an excellent run of business this week, but exporters at the gulf are not seeing any business despite the break in flat price. In fact they say “there are no consumptive buyers but there are no sellers either”, shippers/warehousemen are content to carry their wheat for the storage…
March 6, 2018
The cash markets don’t have anyone pushing to buy wheat unless it is for nearby logistics. The HRW gulf bid/offer is called unchanged and the HRW domestic market saw mills bidding for April/May 5 ct/bu below the spot market. The SRW cif market was still looking for offers, but the bloom is off the domestic…
February 14, 2018
Nearby freight premiums and March trains are starting to drive the cash basis higher for Feb/March. This combined with cash carry is pushing Apr/May values higher as well. HRW basis values traded unchanged for A/M but there are no offers for Feb/Mar. The Kansas City domestic market saw a record number of cars on the…
February 13, 2018
Today was slower than yesterday in the cash wheat markets. The rail freight is having the biggest impact on cash basis with shuttles bid $900/car premium to tariff for Feb with no offer & March bid/offer $500/$750 for last half of month. The premium for the nearby freight increases the cash carry to deferred months…
January 17, Cash Wheat Market
The HRW gulf market says they need nearby trains but no one has been willing to pay for the limited offers in the market. The key is quick shipment & no one wants to guarantee they can get the train out before the end of the month. The 12% protein offers have taken values higher…
Australian Bureau of Statistics cuts 2016/17 Wheat Crop to 30.4 million MT
ABS released updated crop production estimates for 2016/17 marketing year lowering wheat production to 30.4 million MT, 3.0 million MT below USDA. ABS also reduced 2015/16 wheat production 400 thousand tonnes to 21.9 million MT, compared to USDA’s 22.28 million MT. USDA will have to adjust its 2017/18 Australian wheat export forecast in its January…
Texas, Oklahoma, and Southcentral Kansas winter wheat likely to experience drought conditions into early spring.
January 2, 2018
U.S. wheat futures found support from the weekend’s sub-zero temperatures in the central & northern plains and Midwest, as the threat of winterkill was debated today, with nearby Chicago closing up 6.50 cents, Kansas City up 7.50 cents, and Minneapolis tagged along to close up 3.25 cents. The cash markets have been supporting the Mar/May…
The drop in futures to new contract lows is starting to price some business. HRW exporters saw Algerian shorts bidding today and we expect something traded since the bid/ask was only 5 ct/bu. Domestic mills have been pricing old and new crop cash business for HRW, but Kansas City spot basis was off today as…
Cash basis was on fire in domestic HRW business, although it wasn’t shown in the spot close, 11.1% to 11.3% protein was bid +165 KWH8, up 35 ct/bu. Domestic mills and resellers are bidding after disappointing applications to December procurement contracts. The gulf market closed unchanged, but looking for offers in most positions. The domestic…
All eyes on wheat spreads
Wow! Kansas City domestic wheat exploded higher today absorbing all of the KWZ-KWH roll plus another 8+ ct/bu. HRW gulf market saw better bids for 12% protein today and consumers are asking if there will be 12% protein available the balance of the year. SRW domestic market was focused on the deliveries and the cif…
Traders are watching the Z-H spread in all 3 wheat markets and the biggest unknown is why WZ-WH traded out to -19.5 when cash basis is so far above DVE for SRW and HRW. Deliveries are unlikely on MGEX with the spread at -17 ct/bu, KCBT expects delivery of 10.5% protein to help insure a…
November 15, 2017
Cash basis values were higher across all markets today. Perhaps the lower futures market helped buy some demand and/or pricing of wheat in the domestic and export markets. Regardless of the reason the basis was firmer with reports of better bids and a few trades today at the offer side of the market. HRW gulf…
Friday’s Market
The market has run cash basis values to such high levels that shippers are starting to take notice as fall harvests finish and buyers are saying at these values we’ll wait to see if there is more selling in the new calendar year. The function of the market was to take some cash carry out…
Firm US domestic wheat premiums
The cash wheat markets continue to have a firm tone. The HRW domestic market was on fire today, with 11.2% protein cars trading at a record high +150 KWZ and 12.5% protein cars trading +245 KWZ; mills are finding it harder and harder to live off the spot market; offered volume is small and demand…
