Cash markets today are just a repeat of recent days; growers are selling on the rally and there is no export or domestic demand for the nearby. Exporters, resellers and domestic mills are supporting the deferred cash markets, but everyone is plugged for August. There is not bid for August HRW trains at the gulf…
Category Archives: 2018
2018-19 US HRW Protein Test Results
The latest HRW protein update shows northern Colorado averaging 11.8%, southwest Nebraska averaging 12.99%, and southeast Nebraska averaging 14.0% protein.
July 10, 2018
Resellers/mills are saying it is easier to buy wheat from shippers this week & cash markets are starting to see a few more offers in the winter wheat markets. A few shippers are starting to think about making space as they finish harvest. This isn’t a lot of wheat, but since there isn’t a lot…
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicated 33% of winter wheat production and 27% of spring wheat production is in an area impacted by drought. Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx
May 23, 2018
It’s rare to have the cash market and the futures market so strong, when in fact there is no demand. This is acting like a demand pull market, when it is all about supply. The US is rationing demand faster than it may be losing supply. Today’s headlines were: India increases the wheat import tariff…
April 19, 2018
Freight & logistics continue to be the driver for old crop cash wheat with buyers hitting the limited number of bids at the gulf for HRW. Domestic HRW basis closed up 1-4 c/bu today. The SRW barge market came off an 8 ct/bu today in old crop on weaker barge freight & new crop J/J…
April 3, 2018
Today’s futures rally is not buying us any export business, but Russia wheat was up $3-$4/mt today & Matif was up $3-$4/mt as well, so no real damage. The cash markets were mixed as traders were cutting their HRW production estimates after USDA’s crop condition ratings yesterday PM, the gulf traded up 5+ ct/bu on…
USDA March Prospective Planting and Stocks report
Cash wheat markets were dead today as traders focused on logistics for the long weekend & the shock of the USDA stocks & acreage report. They’re also busy with month end, end of quarter & some end of year reports & M2M. We spent the day working on the report & the impact on balance…
March 22, 2018
PNW exporters and Canadian exporters have seen an excellent run of business this week, but exporters at the gulf are not seeing any business despite the break in flat price. In fact they say “there are no consumptive buyers but there are no sellers either”, shippers/warehousemen are content to carry their wheat for the storage…
March 6, 2018
The cash markets don’t have anyone pushing to buy wheat unless it is for nearby logistics. The HRW gulf bid/offer is called unchanged and the HRW domestic market saw mills bidding for April/May 5 ct/bu below the spot market. The SRW cif market was still looking for offers, but the bloom is off the domestic…
February 14, 2018
Nearby freight premiums and March trains are starting to drive the cash basis higher for Feb/March. This combined with cash carry is pushing Apr/May values higher as well. HRW basis values traded unchanged for A/M but there are no offers for Feb/Mar. The Kansas City domestic market saw a record number of cars on the…
February 13, 2018
Today was slower than yesterday in the cash wheat markets. The rail freight is having the biggest impact on cash basis with shuttles bid $900/car premium to tariff for Feb with no offer & March bid/offer $500/$750 for last half of month. The premium for the nearby freight increases the cash carry to deferred months…
January 17, Cash Wheat Market
The HRW gulf market says they need nearby trains but no one has been willing to pay for the limited offers in the market. The key is quick shipment & no one wants to guarantee they can get the train out before the end of the month. The 12% protein offers have taken values higher…
Australian Bureau of Statistics cuts 2016/17 Wheat Crop to 30.4 million MT
ABS released updated crop production estimates for 2016/17 marketing year lowering wheat production to 30.4 million MT, 3.0 million MT below USDA. ABS also reduced 2015/16 wheat production 400 thousand tonnes to 21.9 million MT, compared to USDA’s 22.28 million MT. USDA will have to adjust its 2017/18 Australian wheat export forecast in its January…
Texas, Oklahoma, and Southcentral Kansas winter wheat likely to experience drought conditions into early spring.
January 2, 2018
U.S. wheat futures found support from the weekend’s sub-zero temperatures in the central & northern plains and Midwest, as the threat of winterkill was debated today, with nearby Chicago closing up 6.50 cents, Kansas City up 7.50 cents, and Minneapolis tagged along to close up 3.25 cents. The cash markets have been supporting the Mar/May…
