Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association estimated Oklahoma HRW production at 54.3 million bushel using an average yield of 24.65 bpa. This compared to our estimate of 62.0 million bushel. The current estimate suggests harvested acres at 48%, the lowest in history and compares to the average of 56%.
Brazil’s Bolsonaro authorized a new quota to buy extra Mercosur wheat without tariffs. They did this last year and it puts US and other world wheat on even playing field for up to 750.0 kmt. This is more bearish Argentine values than bullish US values, but it gives HRW a chance in M/A/M shipmentpositions.This week…
The market was dead and especially for O/N/D where exporters have no interest unless they need something for logistics. Last week there were more soybeans loaded from the Texas gulf than wheat. Domestic HRW has not seen a train on the spot market in the past 7-days and pipelines are drawn down. Domestic spring wheat…
The deferred bid/offer values have not change over the past 10-days as buyers hold their bids at historical values and sellers add the freight premiums to delivered premiums. There has been a turnaround in nearby values with higher basis after disappointing applications on September contracts. Increased freight rates encourage shippers to carry wheat until J/F/M…
Weakness of the USD is offset with higher rail freight rates, increased elevation margins, and widening ocean freight spreads. US wheat is a long way from competitive today. Hard red winter wheat growers have sold +50%-65% of their harvest. Shippers/ware-housemen have hard red winter tucked away, despite improved row crop conditions which was supposed to…
Harvest started up today, but there was not a lot of new information offered. TW down 1 lb/bu after weekend rains but still well above average and #2 grade. Elevator bids continue to work higher as each company tries to compete with their competitor, bids were up 3-5+ ct/bu higher today. Delivered bids to domestic…
The market is focused on harvest quality of HRW & SRW. Traders anxiously seek information for HRW yields, quality & protein while waiting on sampled SRW test weight, falling number, & vomitoxin content. It is still early for HRW harvest but yields and quality are above expectations however protein is low. The country hopes it…
In ABARES June Edition, Australia 2020/21 wheat production was pegged at 26.7 million MT reflecting a 27% increase in area to 13.0 million hectares and above average yields in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.
The cash markets were firm but quiet today across the domestic and export markets. There was some trade at the Texas gulf for HRW last week to Brazil and LAM buyers. To our knowledge there has not been additional trades this week, but some interest under the market. The PNW has Japan tendering tonight for…
The theme continues, stronger cash basis despite a lack of “extra ordinary” demand, but lack of grower or shipper engagement. We have said this for weeks, wheat is put away and the focus is on row crop harvest. Growers don’t like the flat price, despite the rally, and shippers are only loading existing sales. The…
The cash basis remains strong across all markets as harvest delays, logistics and lack of transportation forcing exporters and domestic mills to push their nearby bids. The river system is basically closed down. This is forcing exporters to buy/ship more expensive trains and shippers who have barge commitments have to substitute more expensive trains to…
Cash markets today are just a repeat of recent days; growers are selling on the rally and there is no export or domestic demand for the nearby. Exporters, resellers and domestic mills are supporting the deferred cash markets, but everyone is plugged for August. There is not bid for August HRW trains at the gulf…
The latest HRW protein update shows northern Colorado averaging 11.8%, southwest Nebraska averaging 12.99%, and southeast Nebraska averaging 14.0% protein.
Resellers/mills are saying it is easier to buy wheat from shippers this week & cash markets are starting to see a few more offers in the winter wheat markets. A few shippers are starting to think about making space as they finish harvest. This isn’t a lot of wheat, but since there isn’t a lot…
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicated 33% of winter wheat production and 27% of spring wheat production is in an area impacted by drought. Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx
It’s rare to have the cash market and the futures market so strong, when in fact there is no demand. This is acting like a demand pull market, when it is all about supply. The US is rationing demand faster than it may be losing supply. Today’s headlines were: India increases the wheat import tariff…
Freight & logistics continue to be the driver for old crop cash wheat with buyers hitting the limited number of bids at the gulf for HRW. Domestic HRW basis closed up 1-4 c/bu today. The SRW barge market came off an 8 ct/bu today in old crop on weaker barge freight & new crop J/J…
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